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Sunday, February 1, 2009

The Coors Field Factor - Matt Holliday




When we talk about the factors of a ball park, none other has a bigger effect than Coors Field. Year in and year out Coors field has been one of the leading stadiums to have the most runs scored, singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns. You would wonder why that is? Well the answer? Its simple!

Thin air!

With Coors field placed in the rocky mountains and with its climate the air in Coors Field or Colorado for that matter is a lot more thinner than other States. So with this thin air it allows the ball to travel much faster at higher velocities enabling the ball to carry into the stands, so typically it is known as a hitter's park. Many players have career years in Colorado, just ask our main man Matt Holliday!

Matt Holliday has been mashing the baseball year in and year out, and it would be expected that he would do the same this year again. With a three average of:
115 runs, 31 homeruns, 113 rbi, 16 sbs, .329 avg.

Now you wonder these are great numbers! I will aim to take him this year in my fantasy baseball draft with my top 10 pick! BUT hold on a second. Before we make a bold move like this one, lets take a closer look at his splits.

Matt Holliday has played his whole 5 year career in Coor's Field and in his 5 year tenure with the Rockies Matt Holliday's magnified home and away splits are:

Home:
359 games, 285 runs, 483 hits, 84 homeruns, 307 rbi, 129 walks, 28 sbs, .357 avg

Away:
339 games, 194 runs, 365 hits, 44 homeruns, 176 rbi, 122 walks, 38 sbs, .280 avg

Now look at the significant difference in his splits
At home Holliday has about 100 less runs, has hit about 40 more homeruns, about 130 less rbi, and a significantly lower batting average. Of course his steals have nothing to do with park factors so we do not need to consider that. Not only that but we must also factor in the park factor of Oakland. Oakland is a major pitchers park and year in and year out they continue to have pitchers who pitch much better due to the extended range of the homerun wall.

With these factors in place, Matt Holliday is due for a decline. Of course he will still put up very good stats but nothing close to a top 10 value that Holliday normally provides. Let someone else draft him high up and you will be giving yourself a pat on the back for not buying into the hype of Matt Holliday.

Projection: 87 runs, 26 homeruns, 96 rbi, 25 sbs, .284 avg

4 comments:

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

There were a few arguments at the FBC against the Coors effect. It's starting to get really obnoxious how people scream "LOOK AT HIS HOME/ROAD SPLITS! LOOK AT COORS FIELD!" when 1) many of the game's best players have worse home/road splits, including Sizemore, Wright, and a few other first rounders, and 2) Coors isn't even the best hitter's park anymore. Fenway and Chase have higher park factors. The arguments are about as valuable as saying "he did well last year, that means he'll do well this year".

I will now copy paste some of the arguments made by myself, Nerfherder, and Dan Charette at the FBC.

---Matt Holliday's career road numbers...
First 2 games of a trip: .277 BA/.472 SLG
3rd game on: .281/.446
4th game on: .281/.458
5th game on: .291/.483
6th game on: .305/.522
7th game on: .321/.567
8th game on: .356/.683

It takes him one week to adjust to sea-level pitching and then he becomes an elite hitter again. Fine, he'll be a league average OF for the first week of the season but then he'll be the same .320+ Matt Holliday we know and love.---

---

---Check out these [2008] home / away splits .

Wright; Home .336 21 hr's
Away .271 12 hr's

A-Rod Home .334 21 hr's
Away .280 14 hr's

Braun Home .305 23 hr's
Away .266 17 hr's

Howard Home .261 26 hr's
Away .241 21 hr's

Hamilton Home .345 19 hr's
Away .263 13 hr's

Sizemore Home .322 21 hr's
Away .216 12 hr's

Now Holliday Home .322 15 hr's
Away .308 10 hr's

Holliday's road splits are better % wise than all of these elite players.

I guess that means , If I use a home/away argument that Sizemore is not a first round pick. Wasn't he voted the # 1 outfielder in the cafe poll ? How can that be ? He's awful on the road.
.216 average.

Wright was a lot better at home . Shea was a pitchers park. So the type of park doesn't always matter.---

Prediction: .319 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 15 SB

jeffshum said...

he will hit better than 284

Unknown said...

He will HIT ABOVE 284...I guarantee

Projections: 305 avg, 29 hrs, 95 rbi, 99 runs, 24 sb