High Risk, Very High Reward

Milton Bradley is the absolute definition of high risk high reward. Every year, this man has been on the free agents of your fantasy league because he never plays but when he does play he provides solid contributions across all fantasy stats. If only he was able to stay healthy throughout his career, this man would be a fantasy stud.

Last year, Bradley's stats were:

.321 Avg ,22 Homeruns ,77 RBI, 78 Runs, 5 Sbs, 80 BB, .436OBP, .563 SLG, .999 OPS

His career on base percentage is .370. Which is a good indicator to his patience at the plate. This year he signed with the Chicago Cubs for the next three years for $30 million. You can argue that it was a contract year and that is why he produced career highs across the board.

However, Milton Bradley has gotten better at the plate as hes aged into 31, and he is going to be hitting in between Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee, to give a left handed look inbetween the two. Moving to Wrigley Field is also easier for hitters as the homerun fence is shorter as well.

Bradley is into his 30s now and he will be looking to win a championship before his career is over. Chicago will be the place to do it as they will again, contend for the championship this year.

Look for Bradley to produce well again this year provided that he can stay healthy, Look to grab him around the 6-7th round. He is definitely a risk that I will be taking this year.

Projection: 135 Games, .307 avg, 25 homeruns, 100 runs, 102 rbi, 10 sb

Yes, 135 Games

My Target Catcher

Every year, I watch fantasy owners make the same mistake over and over again. Well, one of them is to never pay for saves, and the other? Drafting catchers high up top. Last year in some of my fantasy leagues, I saw owners taking Victor Martinez and Russell Martin basically in the second round, which was not worth it at all as we know how V-Mart turned out and Martin not playing up to the value where he was drafted. While I found a gem in Ryan Doumit last year who was my #1 catcher and propelled me to the finals in my Head-2-Head fantasy league. 

I'll get straight to the point. Ramon Hernandez is my target this year and will be an excellent catcher for the fantasy season. The type of catcher that will net you very good return on investment. Although Hernandez is turning 33 this year he still contributes alot ot the table. Looking at his past seasons he has shown that he is capable of hitting 20 homers and driving in a good number of rbis. He will not hit for a high average as his career average shows that he normally hits .253. 

So why am I high on him?

He is on a stacked reds lineup. This team is young and dangerous, with excellent hitters featuring Bruce, Phillips, Votto,Keppinger, Tavares, and Encarnacion. Hernandez is also a good contact hitter as he doesnt strikeout alot as indicated by his history. The Great American Ball Park is a hitters park, players simply love hitting in this field and it will only be beneficial to Hernandez as he will definitely see a rise in his numbers.

My projection: 129 Games, 71 Runs, 23 HR , 85 rbi, .270 avg

Alfonso Soriano - Another Bust in Another Year

When playing any sort of fantasy sport, drafting based on name value will no longer do the trick. Many fantasy owners are prone to choosing a player simply by name value and omitting the statistics that go along with the player. And by the end of the season you wonder why you didn't win your fantasy league even though you had a 'stacked' lineup. These are the kind of players that look good on your team but do not produce as much as you think.

Enter: Alfosno Soriano.

When we hear Alfonso Soriano, we think of the 30 homeruns and 30 stolen base potential that he will provide us each year. There is no doubt this young stud has talent as he provided us with 46 homeruns and 41 stolen bases in 2006. However, that was 3 years ago. For the past two seasons Alfonso Soriano has been plagued with injury prone seasons with only playing 135 and 109 games. He sat out many games last season due to leg injuries from running.

According to the Chicago Tribune, Soriano has said that he does not mind moving away from the leadoff spot and he wants to continiue running like he did in his magic 40/40 season. However, with all this said, Soriano isn't exactly a great hitter when he does not leadoff. He is a great fastball hitter and that is why leading off for him is great because pitchers tend to want to throw fastballs to start the game to get into their groove. Soriano has always had a high strikeout rate and there is no reason for it to not continue this year. His walk to strikeout ratio for the past two seasons are .24 and .42. He has never been a hitter to take walks which means he does not have patience at the plate, which has led to his high strikeouts each year. Soriano has alot of trouble hitting the breaking stuff as he has never really been able to accelerate in the third spot or cleanup, he has always displeasure hitting anywhere but leadoff, which has caused many distractions with his tenure in Washington and Chicago.

Soriano has said that he has a team first approach now and is willing to not leadoff, but we will not really know how he will feel once he finds that it is more troublesome to hit later in the batting order rather than leadoff. Pack this with him saying he wants to run like he did in the past, trying to nab about 40 stolen bases again this season, this will only pack trouble for fantasy owners. He has stolen 19 stolen bases each of the past two years and his number of games continue to decline. If I were Lou Pinella, I would want Soriano to run less and swing the bat more. However, we have also seen player rejuvenated before which is a factor we may want to consider, just take a look at Milton Bradley last year who is another injury prone player with great upside. But with Soriano, the risk is simply too high for a late 1st and 2nd round pick.

Projection: 110 Games, 27 Homeruns, 85 runs, 84 rbi, 19 sb, .283 avg

The Coors Field Factor - Matt Holliday

When we talk about the factors of a ball park, none other has a bigger effect than Coors Field. Year in and year out Coors field has been one of the leading stadiums to have the most runs scored, singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns. You would wonder why that is? Well the answer? Its simple!

Thin air!

With Coors field placed in the rocky mountains and with its climate the air in Coors Field or Colorado for that matter is a lot more thinner than other States. So with this thin air it allows the ball to travel much faster at higher velocities enabling the ball to carry into the stands, so typically it is known as a hitter's park. Many players have career years in Colorado, just ask our main man Matt Holliday!

Matt Holliday has been mashing the baseball year in and year out, and it would be expected that he would do the same this year again. With a three average of:
115 runs, 31 homeruns, 113 rbi, 16 sbs, .329 avg.

Now you wonder these are great numbers! I will aim to take him this year in my fantasy baseball draft with my top 10 pick! BUT hold on a second. Before we make a bold move like this one, lets take a closer look at his splits.

Matt Holliday has played his whole 5 year career in Coor's Field and in his 5 year tenure with the Rockies Matt Holliday's magnified home and away splits are:

Home:
359 games, 285 runs, 483 hits, 84 homeruns, 307 rbi, 129 walks, 28 sbs, .357 avg

Away:
339 games, 194 runs, 365 hits, 44 homeruns, 176 rbi, 122 walks, 38 sbs, .280 avg

Now look at the significant difference in his splits
At home Holliday has about 100 less runs, has hit about 40 more homeruns, about 130 less rbi, and a significantly lower batting average. Of course his steals have nothing to do with park factors so we do not need to consider that. Not only that but we must also factor in the park factor of Oakland. Oakland is a major pitchers park and year in and year out they continue to have pitchers who pitch much better due to the extended range of the homerun wall.

With these factors in place, Matt Holliday is due for a decline. Of course he will still put up very good stats but nothing close to a top 10 value that Holliday normally provides. Let someone else draft him high up and you will be giving yourself a pat on the back for not buying into the hype of Matt Holliday.

Projection: 87 runs, 26 homeruns, 96 rbi, 25 sbs, .284 avg